2026 is on the horizon, marking the end of a volatile but solid year for public markets. Macroeconomic conditions, evolving investor sentiment, and technological advancements continue to shape the investment landscape, and looking forward, we believe disruptive technologies will play a progressively central role in market dynamics.
As the front door for innovation, the IPO market offers valuable insight into the coming year. Through this lens, we explore the key trends expected to shape activity in 2026, as well as how the Renaissance IPO ETF can potentially help investors position themselves to capture the emerging themes shaping the new stock asset class.
Reflecting on the 2025 Market Landscape
Public markets were influenced by a complex interplay of factors in 2025. Central banks’ efforts to manage inflation, changing tariff policies in the US, and geopolitical tensions worldwide brought spikes in volatility, particularly early in the year.
After a more selective first half, the IPO market finally saw its long-awaited pickup materialize, with high-profile unicorns driving robust deal flow. Public investors began to move back into growth stocks in mid-Q2, though they remained discerning, and after some explosive debuts early on, rational appetite returned.
Tech-enabled businesses were a core theme, with major listings from Klarna, Figma, and StubHub. Digital asset plays were also prevalent during the year, with debuts from companies like stablecoin issuer Circle, blockchain-powered lender Figure, and crypto exchanges Bullish, eToro, and Gemini. Artificial intelligence (AI) continued to make headway, with many issuers touting AI capabilities and applications, and the IPO market saw its first AI pure-play, infrastructure developer CoreWeave, though most continued to stay private.
Source: Renaissance Capital. Data as of 11/28/2025.
The Renaissance IPO ETF has had volatile trading against this backdrop, outperforming broader market benchmarks in the June and September quarters amid renewed interest in growth stocks and tailwinds in disruptive spaces like AI, though falling off in the past month due to concerns about elevated tech sector valuations. As of 11/28/2025, the Renaissance IPO ETF returned +6.5% year to date, below the S&P 500 (+17.8%).
Source: Renaissance Capital, based on data from Yahoo Finance as of 11/28/2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance data quoted represents past performance and current returns may be lower or higher. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. For the most recent quarter end performance, please click here for IPO and here for SPY.
All funds are managed differently and do not react the same to economic or market events. This article does not aim to make direct fund-to-fund comparisons. The investment objectives, strategies, policies, or restrictions of other funds may differ and more information can be found in their respective prospectuses. Therefore, we generally do not believe it is possible to make direct fund to fund comparisons in an effort to highlight the benefits of a fund versus another similarly managed fund.
Source: Fund prospectuses. Click here for the IPO prospectus and here for the SPY prospectus.
Forward-Looking Insights on the 2026 Market
Looking ahead to 2026, public markets will likely be shaped by a confluence of factors, including both sector-specific trends and broader macroeconomic themes. Disruptive technologies, especially AI, should continue to drive innovation and transform business models across a variety of industries. Investors may also focus on central bank policies, particularly interest rate developments and how they will influence growth stocks and access to liquidity, as well as global trade dynamics and their potential impact on broader equity markets.
With this in mind, the IPO market remains a critical lens for understanding the trajectory of innovation. Emerging trends in the new stock asset class should continue to revolve around tech-driven business models. Advances in AI are reshaping everything from enterprise software to consumer-facing platforms. Fintech and digital asset ecosystems are redefining the global economy. New developments in space and defense are accelerating as governments and private players expand their strategic and commercial ambitions. These trends reflect a broader shift in the digitization and modernization of key industries, underscoring drivers in the next cycle of growth.
The Renaissance IPO ETF aims to provide exposure to these emerging trends in a systematic way. Because its methodology often tilts towards the most active spaces in the IPO market, the IPO ETF is positioned to capture growth-oriented sectors while mitigating the risk of investing in new stocks individually through diversification.
Source: Renaissance Capital. Left chart shows data for US IPOs that raised at least $100 million in the period from 9/23/2022 to 8/25/2025. Right chart shows sectors by weight in the Renaissance IPO ETF as of 11/28/2025.
Key Themes for 2026
Below we highlight key themes that we expect to influence the IPO landscape in the coming year:
- Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Ongoing debates around trade policies, tax reforms, and monetary policy directions may influence market volatility, encouraging diversified ETF strategies to manage risk.
- Rebounding Appetite for Risk and Growth: Fully emerging from the post-COVID slowdown, investors should continue to show renewed interest in growth-oriented businesses, particularly in tech-related areas.
- Expansion of Disruptive Technologies: The rapid adoption of AI, quantum computing, automation, and other disruptive technologies should drive more interest in companies operating in these spaces. Those that come to market may see explosive early trading as investors look to capture long-term growth potential, or simply capitalize on an initial spike in value.
- Build-Out of Data Infrastructure: The expansion of AI is increasing demand for data centers and similar infrastructure solutions. Infrastructure-focused investments will likely continue to gain traction as foundational support for the growing wave of technological advancements.
- Sustained Activity Beyond Tech: Sectors like healthcare, industrials, and consumer goods should bolster upcoming IPO activity, diversifying opportunities beyond tech-heavy listings.
- Narrowing Valuation Disconnect: Private market valuations have mostly adjusted to public market realities, while depressed valuation multiples in public markets have steadily recuperated. Reaching a middle ground should encourage more high-profile growth names in the private backlog to pursue public listings.
- Concerns About Market Froth and an AI Bubble: Elevated valuations in AI and related sectors may prompt scrutiny, with investors monitoring for signs of over-enthusiasm and its impact on market stability.
Positioning for the Future with the Renaissance IPO ETF
The dynamic landscapes of public markets and the new stock asset class can be difficult for investors to navigate, and many face a persistent problem we call the “IPO allocation gap.” Traditional benchmarks often exclude companies for months or even years after they go public, leaving portfolios underexposed to emerging disruptors during their most transformational period as new stocks. This structural gap means investors relying solely on legacy funds may miss important contributors to market growth and diversification.
The Renaissance IPO ETF aims to address this challenge by systematically incorporating newly-public companies through a transparent, rules-based methodology. The IPO ETF seeks to provide exposure to innovative companies in the new stock asset class, capturing growth while managing risk. Investors can leverage the IPO ETF to align with their objectives, though strategies such as regular portfolio reviews and rebalancing can help investors stay agile in evolving conditions. We encourage consultation with financial advisors to tailor approaches to individual objectives.
Conclusion
We believe the interplay of disruptive technologies, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical developments will significantly shape the new stock asset class and broader public markets in 2026. By staying informed on these trends and leveraging diversified ETF strategies, investors can navigate this evolving landscape. The Renaissance IPO ETF offers a strategic way to engage with emerging trends, providing diversified access to innovation-driven opportunities.
We invite investors to explore our offerings at etfs.renaissancecapital.com and consult with their financial advisors to tailor their strategies for the year ahead.
Investments in the Renaissance IPO ETF, symbol “IPO”, are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of the principal amounts invested. The ETF invests in companies that have recently completed initial public offerings. These stocks are unseasoned equities lacking trading history, a track record of reporting to investors and widely available research coverage which may result in extreme price volatility. Due to a greater number of IPOs in certain segments, the ETF may also be subject to information technology and financial sector risk, and small and mid-capitalization company risk. The ETF may hold securities in the form of Depository Receipts, REITs, and Partnership Units, which have greater risks than common shares. The strategies have high portfolio turnover and securities lending risks. The returns of the ETF may not match the return of the index. The ETF is classified as non-diversified investment companies subject to concentration risk.
For a prospectus and/or summary prospectus with this and other information, please visit the document center at etfs.renaissancecapital.com. Investors should read the prospectus and consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing.
Companies mentioned in this article may be held by the fund. For a list of the Renaissance IPO ETF's top 10 holdings, please click here. Fund holdings are subject to change.
Foreside Fund Services, LLC, is the distributor for the ETFs. For additional information, contact Foreside at 1-866-486-6645.